The 2020 American Election Eve Poll includes over 15,000 voters nationally with oversamples of Latino/Latinx, African American, Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander American, and rural voters, along with other voters; as well as state-specific samples for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. According to results from The American Election Eve 2020 Survey, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won Latino voters in Florida by an estimated margin of 21 points. Biden received the support of 59 percent of the state’s Latinos, Republican incumbent Donald Trump captured 38 percent, with the remaining 3 percent supporting third-party candidates. Of note, our poll conducted in collaboration with Univision had Latinos 57 percent for Biden and 37 percent for Donald Trump.
Latino Decisions estimates that 1,900,000 Latino votes are expected when all is said and done in Florida and turnout can could be as high as 2 million Latino voters by the end of Election Day.
As indicated in the table below, Biden’s Latino support in Florida varied by gender, age and other demographic characteristics.
The pandemic mattered most
According to the American Election Eve poll, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Latino voters. Nationally, 67 percent of Latinos surveyed agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response. Their attitudes are similar to those of Asian Americans (67 percent), but notably lower than among African Americans (84 percent). Only white voters surveyed were narrowly more likely to agree with the statement that “there was nothing Trump could have done differently” to limit the virus’ spread (54 percent) than whites who agreed that Trump “ignored” and “mismanaged” the virus (46 percent).
In addition, 57 percent of Latinos nationwide reported that either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point. This figure is similar to response rates for African Americans (54 percent) and Native Americans (59 percent), but slightly lower for Asian Americans (45 percent) and whites (49 percent). A combined 85 percent of Latinos said they either “strongly agreed” (67 percent) or “somewhat agreed” (31 percent) that the next Congress should pass a $2 trillion, comprehensive COVID stimulus bill.
Florida’s Latinos expressed similar opinions about the pandemic and the government’s response. Among Latinos in Florida surveyed in the poll, 52 percent rated it the most important issue to them this election; 60 percent agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response; 54 percent said either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point; and a combined 93 percent of Latinos said they either “very important” (71 percent) or “somewhat important” (22 percent) that the next Congress should pass a $2 trillion, comprehensive COVID stimulus bill.
With little variation in support for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, Cuban-Americans stood out with 55 percent support for Trump over Joe Biden. Cuban-Americans were the only group in our selected demographics to favor Trump.
“Thanks to enduring support from Cuban-Americans, Republican presidential candidates continue to fare better with Latinos in Florida than any other state,” said Latino Decisions co-founder Gary Segura. “The Democratic-leaning Puerto Rican populations of Central Florida make this the most competitive battleground between the two parties for Latino voters.”
The 12-state and National American Election Eve Poll 2020 was jointly sponsored and funded by a consortium of more than a dozen non-partisan, civic engagement groups, and conducted with confirmed voters, between October 24 and November 2. A total of 15,200 individuals were surveyed, including 5,300 Latino, 4,100 African American, 1,700 Asian American, 1,300 Native American, and 2,800 white voters. For full details and polling results in all states and nationwide, consult our website.
