With only two days to go before the 10 qualified Democratic candidates come together in Houston, Texas for the third primary debate of the 2020 election cycle, Univision News publishes its latest electoral surveys: the National Latino Voter Poll, a survey of Hispanic registered voters in the U.S., and the Texas Voter Poll, which interviewed a representative sample of all registered voters in the state of Texas, with a robust oversampling of Latinos. These new polls reveal Latino voters’ most current political preferences, voting intention, concerns, opinions on recent developments, views on president Trump and much more, in addition to providing an intriguing snapshot of the changing political climate in the traditionally red state of Texas. Complete results of Univision News’ National Latino Voter Poll and Texas Voter Poll are now available at UnivisionNoticias.com.
Overseen by Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios, Director of Polling for Univision News, both surveys were conducted by the polling firms Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion Research between August 30 and September 6, 2019. The National Latino Voter Poll was commissioned by Univision News, while the Texas Voter Poll was commissioned through a partnership between Univision News and Professor Jeronimo Cortina of the Center for Mexican American Studies at the University of Houston.
Among the most interesting findings from the new Univision News polls is the fact that if the presidential election were held today, the Hispanic vote would go overwhelmingly to Biden, Sanders or any other Democratic candidate over President Trump, by large margins.
And specifically in Texas, where all registered voters (Hispanics and non-Hispanics) were polled, the survey found a marked preference for a Democratic candidate, raising the possibility that the conventionally Republican Texas could turn into a contested battleground state in 2020.
Another striking result has to do with gun violence and race relations, as the majority of U.S. Latinos believe that President Trump’s rhetoric and tweets are partly to blame for the recent mass shooting in El Paso, Texas.
Several trends from prior Hispanic voter surveys published by Univision News this year continue to hold in these new opinion polls. For example, the national survey confirms that the great majority of Hispanic voters still consider the 2020 presidential election very important and will most likely vote in it; voting intention among Latinos continues to highly favor Democrats, as only a small minority of respondents are considering a vote for President Trump, whose approval rating remains low among Hispanics; and the top Democratic candidates for Latinos continue to be Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Following are some key findings from Univision News’ latest electoral polls:
NATIONAL LATINO VOTER POLL
- President Trump maintains a job approval of 22% among Latino registered voters.
- A strong majority of U.S. Hispanics (62%) say they are certain to vote for a Democratic candidate.
- Among those who are less certain, 15% said they are leaning Democrat, 5% are leaning toward Trump, and 11% remain undecided.
- In specific matchups, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are seen as the stronger candidates, with a +56% and a +53% advantage respectively (Biden 71% vs Trump 15%; Sanders 71% vs Trump 18%).
- Other matchups also show strong pro-Democrat preferences among Latino voters (Harris +50%, Castro +48%, Warren +45%, Booker +45%).
- In preferences for the Democratic primary, Biden and Sanders continue to lead among Latinos (22% and 20% respectively).
- Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris maintain the gains they made among Latinos after the first and second primary debates (11%, 8% respectively).
- With regard to the recent mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, 69% of respondents think that the language President Trump uses in his speeches and on Twitter is part of the problem. A similar percentage believe that the shooter was influenced by Trump.
- 74% of Latinos believe that white supremacist groups pose a threat to the United States.
- An overwhelming majority (92%) of Latinos believe that Congress should pass a law expanding background checks for all gun sales and transfers.
TEXAS VOTER POLL
- In the Texas statewide sample (including all racial groups), Texans report a +5% preference for a Democratic candidate.
- In Texas, Republican senator John Cornyn holds a -36% vote intention deficit (Democrat 58% vs Cornyn 22%) among Latinos and a +1% advantage in the statewide sample (Cornyn 41% vs Democrat 40%).
- When Texans were asked whether Julián Castro or Beto O’Rourke should drop out of the presidential race and instead run for the U.S. Senate, the majority stated that they support both candidates’ presidential bids.
- O’Rourke is the favorite candidate among Texans, registering 26% favorability among Texas Latinos and 19% among all voters polled in the statewide sample.
To view the complete results of both polls, please go to UnivisionNoticias.com.
