The decennial census conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau has been critical in advancing Latino social-political empowerment; the allotment of political seats, allocation of billions of dollars in public expenditures, and decisions about private investments are largely informed by census data. Hence, accuracy and the minimization of under-counts are essential to the political, economic and social well-being of nearly 60 million Latinos residing in the United States. Heading into the 2020 Census, the Trump Administration has made a number of ill-advised decisions that are likely to under-count Latinos. This analysis examines Latino voters’ general attitudes toward the census and their evaluations of some of President Trump’s administrative guidelines for the upcoming 2020 Census.
Latinos have long been regarded as the nation’s invisible or forgotten minority. Discussions about civil rights or minority representation often center on the plight of African Americans, leaving Latinos out of the conversation. Given this reality, Latino leaders stress that Hispanic participation in the decennial census counts are essential to increasing their visibility. Does the larger Latino population share this view? To what degree do they value participation in the decennial census count? Will proposed changes to the census by the Trump Administration discourage Latino participation? To answer these questions, I draw on data from the Latino Decisions/NALEO tracking poll which includes several questions on the census.[1] First, we ask respondents to assess the importance of the Census Bureau in carrying out a complete and accurate count of the entire Latino population.
Among Latino voters, 93% said it was somewhat to very important that the U.S. Census implement a complete and accurate count of the Latino population. Clearly, majorities of Latinos are aware of the importance of the census and believe that the agency should devote the necessary resources to prevent an under-counted of its population. Nonetheless, the Trump Administration is seeking to include a question on the next census that identifies a person’s citizenship status. Critics argue that the inclusion of this question will discourage Latinos and other groups with large immigrant populations from participating. In January 2018, six former directors of the U.S. Census Bureau wrote a letter to Secretary of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross expressing their concern about including a citizenship question. The letter concludes, “we believe that adding a citizenship question to the 2020 Census will considerably increase the risks to the 2020 enumeration.” Anticipating a citizenship question, we asked Latinos whether they thought the Trump Administration would keep that information private, as required by law, or share it with other agencies.
Although we made it clear that, “It is against the law for the Census Bureau to disclose, make public, or share with anyone including other federal agencies the personal information collected from anyone,” Latinos do not believe President Trump will follow the law. Over two-thirds of the respondents (68%) believe the Trump Administration would share information from the census with other federal agencies. One of the biggest concerns about the inclusion of the citizenship question is that it will have a chilling effect on immigrant communities because of fears that the data collected will be used to target undocumented immigrants. In a follow-up question, we asked whether respondents were concerned that the Trump Administration would share census information with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (I.C.E.) Agency.
The results reveal that 78% of respondents believe that the Trump Administration would share sensitive census information with I.C.E. This is a significant finding given that all of the respondents in the survey are U.S. citizens. Concern is likely to be higher among immigrant Latinos who are undocumented or have yet to become naturalized citizens. One consequence of this collective angst is that it will increase non-participation in the census and lead to a significant under count of the Latino population. In a recent lawsuit to block the government’s decision to include a citizenship question on the census, a federal court in New York has ordered Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to answer questions under oath regarding the reasons why such as question is being included. We asked respondents whether Secretary Ross should testify and turn over all information regarding this issue or whether he should not be compelled to testify. In the survey, three-quarters (76%) of respondents said that he should testify and provide documents about why he ordered the U.S. Census Bureau to add the citizenship question.
Another significant change to the 2020 Census is the use of online questionnaires via a computer or mobile device to collect data. This approach is not without risks, especially in an environment where cyber-attacks and on-line security breaches have become common occurrences. We asked respondents if they felt comfortable filling out and submitting the census questionnaire though the internet.
The results in Figure 4 show that Latino voters have misgivings about the new way the census is being administered. A mere 53% feel somewhat to very comfortable with this approach to the data collection. This finding raises additional concerns for Latino leaders and advocacy groups who already fear that the 2020 Census is going to result in significant under-counts of the Latino population.
Accurate counts of the American population are essential to apportioning seats to the U.S. House of Representatives, redrawing districts, allocating federal dollars and providing policymakers with vital information on the nation’s population. Hence, the census has been a vital instrument for Latinos in their advancement for social, political and economic integration. For decades, Latino leaders and organizations have sought to improve the manner by which the U.S. Census Bureau designs its questionnaire and collects its data among Latinos. Recently, the General Accounting Office designated the 2020 Census as being at “high risk” of failure because of administrative changes undertaken by the Trump Administration. For Latinos, the most important change that significantly increases the likelihood of an under-count is the inclusion of a question designed to ascertain the citizenship status of household members. A sizable majority (78%) of our survey respondents believe that the Trump Administration is going to share this sensitive data with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. Again, this is a troubling finding given that all of the respondents in the survey are U.S. citizens. If Latinos citizens are worried, then non-citizens will be far more distressed and less likely to participate. Without a doubt, the totality of Trump’s actions on the census will result in a significant under-count of Latinos. The adverse consequences of an under-count will extend beyond the Latino population to include the nation as a whole. Given that one-in-four newborns in the United States is Hispanic, an under-count of Latinos is essentially an under-count of one of the largest segments of the American population.
[1] Methodology. On behalf of NALEO Educational Fund, Latino Decisions interviewed 504 Latino registered voters nationwide from September 19 – October 1, 2018 and carries of margin of error of 4.4%. Each week a fresh sample of 250 registered voters will be added and combined with the previous 250 interviews to create a rolling average of 500 for each week, consistent with most tracking polls methodology. Respondents were randomly selected from Latino Decisions partner web panels and confirmed to be registered to vote. The survey was self-administered and available in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent. Data were compared to the best known estimates of the U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) for demographic profile of Latino registered voters and weights were applied to bring the data into direct balance with Census estimates.
Adrian D. Pantoja, Ph.D., is Senior Analyst at Latino Decisions and Professor of Politics at Pitzer College.
