The 2020 American Election Eve Poll includes over 15,000 voters nationally with oversamples of Latino/Latinx, African American, Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander American, and rural voters, along with other voters; as well as state-specific samples for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. According to results from The American Election Eve 2020 Survey, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won Latino voters in Texas by an estimated margin of 38 points. Biden received the support of 67 percent of the state’s Latinos, Republican incumbent Donald Trump captured 29 percent, with the remaining 4 percent supporting third-party candidates.
As indicated in the table below, Biden’s Latino support in Texas varied by gender, age and other demographic characteristics.
The pandemic mattered most
According to the Election Eve poll, the COVID pandemic had a significant impact on Latino voters. Nationally, 67 percent of Latinos surveyed agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response. Their attitudes are similar to those of Asian Americans (67 percent), but notably lower than among African Americans (84 percent). Only white voters surveyed were narrowly more likely to agree with the statement that “there was nothing Trump could have done differently” to limit the virus’ spread (54 percent) than whites who agreed that Trump “ignored” and “mismanaged” the virus (46 percent).
In addition, 57 percent of Latinos nationwide reported that either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point. This figure is similar to response rates for African Americans (54 percent) and Native Americans (59 percent), but slightly lower for Asian Americans (45 percent) and whites (49 percent). A combined 85 percent of Latinos said they either “strongly agreed” (67 percent) or “somewhat agreed” (31 percent) that the next Congress should pass a $2 trillion, comprehensive COVID stimulus bill.
Texas’ Latinos expressed similar opinions about the pandemic and the government’s response. Among Latinos in Texas surveyed in the poll, 55 percent rated it the most important issue to them this election; 66 percent agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response; 60 percent said either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point and a combined 94 percent of Latinos said it was either “very important” (66 percent) or “somewhat important” (28 percent) that the next Congress should pass a comprehensive COVID stimulus bill with over 2 trillion dollars in additional funding for unemployment benefits, stimulus payments, small business loans, and support for state and local government.
The short story moving forward is Texas is in play. After decades of direct action by a vast coalition of Latinos and their allies, Republicans can no longer take Texas for granted. And while most of the media narratives paint Latinos as conservative, our survey showed that 65 percent of Latino voters supported the statement that abortion should remain a legal option in the United States and 93 percent of Latino voters supported the statement that Congress and the President should support a bold national climate policy agenda that advances the goals of economic, racial, climate, and environmental justice.
“Regardless of who wins Texas this year, the state’s surging Latino population turned the state from red to purple in 2020,” said Latino Decisions co-founder Gary Segura. “Starting in 2024 and for the foreseeable future, the Lone Star State will become the biggest battleground prize in presidential politics.”
The 12-state and National American Election Eve Poll 2020 was jointly sponsored and funded by a consortium of more than a dozen non-partisan, civic engagement groups, and conducted with confirmed voters, between October 24 and November 2. A total of 15,200 individuals were surveyed, including 5,300 Latino, 4,100 African American, 1,700 Asian American, 1,300 Native American, and 2,800 white voters. For full details and polling results in all states and nationwide, consult our website.
