Sergio García-Rios, Amaya Verde, Ana Elena Azpurua, José Fernando López y Javier Figueroa
A Univision News poll finds that, among Latinos registered to vote, Sanders is considered the best debater to take on President Donald Trump in the 2020 elections. It also shows that Senator Elizabeth Warren has consistently gained ground among Hispanics. [Toplines, Crosstabs]
Bernie Sanders’ hoarse voice during the third Democratic debate in Houston did not prevent his message from attracting Latinos registered to vote in 2020. A national poll by Univision News, after the debate, found that the senator is now favored among Hispanic registered voters by two points (in a virtual tie with former vice president Joe Biden).
Sanders and Biden, with 27% and 25% respectively, also emerged as the candidates who performed best in the debate. Elizabeth Warren follows closely with 23%, according to the poll conducted in partnership with Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.8%.
When voters were asked who they would cast their ballot for, Sanders polled two points ahead of Biden (21% to 19%), and five points above the 16% he obtained after the first Democratic debate in June, when he lost ground.
In the exclusive poll conducted between September 13 and 16, Senator Elizabeth Warren also made progress among Hispanic voters, garnering the support of 15% of voters, four points above her showing in a previous survey and more than double the seven percent she had before the first televised debate in June.
Another of Thursday’s winners was former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke, who almost doubled his showing among Latinos prior to the debate: from 6% to 11%, potentially giving his flagging campaign a much needed second. 64% of respondents said his plan to buy back military-style assault rifles, after the mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso, nudged them to vote for the Democratic Party.
On the other hand, Senator Kamala Harris, who led the polls after the June debate with 23%, saw her advantage slip away badly after the third debate, falling to only four percent support.
Latino voters also believe that Sanders would do best in an eventual debate with President Donald Trump (21%), compared with 16% for Biden. In fact, according to respondents, former secretary Julián Castro would be the second best able to debate Trump, with 18%.
The latest poll shows once again how debates can shake up voter preferences, however on this occasion the September 12 encounter, which first brought together the main candidates on the same night, saw Sanders and Biden consolidate their leadership.
The survey also asked Hispanic voters about the exchanges between Castro and Biden. After the third debate, the former Secretary of Housing was criticized by those who considered that he was too aggressive towards the former vice president. However, 64% of Hispanic respondents said he was right to “highlight inconsistencies in Biden’s plans” on immigration and healthcare. They also thought Castro has the best plan to carry out immigration reform.
Univision News polls have shown that health costs are the main concern for Hispanic voters, so this survey explored how the candidates’ discussion about healthcare was perceived. Once again, Sanders came out on top.
Of those polls, 29% thought that the Vermont senator has the best plan to lower medical costs, compared to 18% for Biden and Warren. The Sanders ‘Medicare for all’ plan with guaranteed medical coverage was better received than Medicare with the option of keeping private health insurance (70% versus 64%).
Methodology: On behalf of Univision Communications Inc., Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion collaborated on a national poll of Latino registered voters following the Houston Democratic debate. The poll was overseen by Univision polling director Dr. Sergio Garcia-Rios. Overall 408 Latino registered voters were interviewed across all fifty states from a combination of landline, cell phone, and online completion modes. All voters were randomly selected and given the opportunity to complete the interview in English or Spanish, at their discretion. Randomized stratified quota sampling was employed to ensure the appropriate balance of Latinos across state, gender, age, education, and nativity. Post-stratification weights were applied to bring the sample into alignment with the Census CPS estimates of Latino citizen adults nationwide. Overall 21% of interviews were in Spanish and 79% in English. The final survey contains an overall design error of +/- 4.8.%.
About Univision News
Univision’s award-winning News division is committed to informing the country’s fastest growing segment across all media platforms, including TV, Radio, and Interactive. Hispanics count on the latest and most relevant content that impacts the community through: “Noticiero Univision,” the Network’s evening, late evening and weekend national newscast; Sunday public affairs program “Al Punto” (To The Point); newsmagazine shows “Aquí y Ahora” (Here and Now) and “Primer Impacto” (First Impact); as well as morning news segments on “Despierta América” (Wake Up America).
About Univision Communications Inc.
As the leading Hispanic media company in the U.S., Univision Communications Inc. entertains, informs and empowers U.S. Hispanics with news, sports and entertainment content across broadcast and cable television, audio and digital platforms. The company’s top-rated media portfolio includes the Univision and UniMás broadcast networks, as well as cable networks Galavisión and TUDN, the No. 1 Spanish-language sports network in the country. Locally, Univision owns or operates 65 television stations in major U.S. Hispanic markets and Puerto Rico. The company’s prominent digital assets include Univision.com, streaming service Univision Now, the largest Hispanic influencer network and several top-rated apps. For more information, visit corporate.univision.com.
About North Star Opinion Research
North Star Opinion Research is a national public opinion research firm located in Alexandria, VA. The firm conducts surveys and focus groups across the country for associations, non-profits, corporations, and Republican candidates running for office at all levels.
About Latino Decisions
Latino Decisions is the nation’s leading polling and research firm on Latino Americans, being called the “gold-standard in Latino American polling” by Time Magazine and has implemented its weekly political tracking poll of Latino voters every cycle since 2010.
