As we submit this op-ed nearly 340,000 Americans have tested positive for the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and over 9,000 have died, with forecasting models from the University of Washington predicting that 2,000 Americans could die each day in mid-April. The rapid spread of the virus across the country has led to nearly 8 out of ten Americans living in a jurisdiction with directives from political leadership to stay at home and comply with social distancing orders.
The primary defense against the virus at this point based on recommendations from the CDC is to practice social distancing, avoiding personal interaction with others by working from home when possible and avoiding crowds and traveling. The growing concern about the potential spread of the virus has led many Americans to change their travel plans, work remotely from their home, and take other steps to reduce interactions with others. We draw on our national on-line survey (n=4,000) to examine behavior changes across the public, with a particular focus on how partisanship may influence behavior. The survey was fielded between March 12 and 15, dates that overlapped President Trump’s announcement of a national emergency in response to the coronavirus outbreak on March 13. This survey provides an opportunity to explore self-reported compliance with several of these recommendations.
Overall, we see that many Americans had taken steps to reduce the spread of the virus in mid-March. For example, a third of the sample were able or chose to work from home, 36% changed travel plans, and 45% changed other regular behaviors to stop the spread of the virus. The United States’ high level of partisan based polarization is apparent in the steps the public has taken so far to prevent the spread of the virus, as Democrats were more likely to have changed their behavior in response to the Coronavirus than Republicans and Independents. Although the 5% gap across the behavioral change items in the survey is not huge, when we consider the many lives that will be lost due to even a small number of Americans who are infected, it is significant.
This partisan effect is not as wide however as the difference in behavior based on whether respondent’s live in states led by a Republican or Democratic governor. Democratic governors in many states were aggressive in using their executive powers to close down public events and influence universities and businesses to allow non-critical employees to work from home early in the process. Conversely, there are only eight states left who have yet to issue statewide directives urging residents to stay at home, with all eight led by Republican Governors.
The data suggests that this is an important distinction, as 58% of respondents who live in Democratically controlled states reported that they changed their behavior to stop the spread of the virus compared to only 42% who live in states with Republican governors. This will be an important trend to watch as we approach the Easter weekend when several states have projected to lift restrictions on public church masses, and several consider expansion of voting by mail to reduce the spread of the virus. We are in an unprecedented time when lives will be saved or lost depending unfortunately on the outcome of these decisions.
There has been wide criticism of the Trump administration’s handling of the Coronavirus, particularly in the early stages of the outbreak when the President’s messaging suggested that the Coronavirus was no more serious than the annual flu. The sample is essentially evenly divided in Presidential approval of Coronavirus performance, with 48% of Americans approving the job the President is doing and 44% disapproving (6% undecided).
Given the concerns raised by public health experts regarding the President’s early messaging, we explored whether approval of the President’s response to the Coronavirus outbreak has influenced the early steps the public may have taken to reduce the spread. Overall, we see a slight, but statistically significant difference, with those who approve of the President’s performance being less likely to have changed their behavior. It is fortunate that the effect of the President’s performance was not more impactful on public response reflected through behavior change, a finding likely a result of low trust in his messages on the issue.
The President’s messaging has fortunately shifted to recognize the severity of the situation, including extending recommendations of social distancing and stay at home restrictions through the end of April. We will be able to assess whether Americans who were slow to adopt changes to their behavior will hear the new messaging from the President and adopt these important changes to their daily activities in the next wave of our survey. The results from the first wave suggest that the answer to this question will be unfortunately dependent on partisanship.
Dr. Gabriel R Sanchez, Professor of Political Science, Director of UNM Center for Social Policy, Principal, Latino Decisions. Dr. Sanchez is also Co-PI, Transdisciplin
Melanie Sayuri Dominguez, PhD Candidate in Political Science, UNM Center for Social Policy Doctoral Fellow
Edward D. Vargas, PhD, MPH, Assistant Professor, ASU School of Transborder Studies
