New results released today by a Latino Decisions national survey of Hispanic registered voters finds continued high support for comprehensive immigration reform, and Latinos expect this to happen before the 2010 midterm election. Obama made immigration reform a campaign promise to the Latino electorate during his 2008 campaign for the presidency and the polling data suggests that Latino voters expect him to make good on this promise. The new survey results from November 2009 reveal that 84% of Latino voters say it is important for Congress and the President to pass an immigration bill before the 2010 election. While attention had shifted to the major debate over health care, Latino voters remain interested in seeing both health care and immigration reform addressed soon. One year ago in a post-election survey, Latino Decisions found 86% stated it was important for Congress and the President to act on immigration reform during 2009. With the economic stimulus package, Afghanistan, and health care dominating 2009, Latino voters now expect action on immigration before the November 2010 election.
Respondents were also queried whether they would blame Obama and the Democrats for not passing an immigration bill before the midterm election, or if it was understandable that it was delayed given other issues on the agenda. Here, the Latino electorate was split with only 40% saying it would be understandable, compared to 29% who said it was going back on a campaign promise, and 27% who said it was a little of both. Further, when asked how this would effect their vote intentions in 2010 and 2012, as many as 27% of Latinos said they were unlikely to support Democrats if immigration reform was not passed by 2010, while as many as 37% said they would not vote Democrat if immigration reform is not passed by 2012.
In a poll released in May 2009 covering the first 100 days of the Obama presidency, Latino Decisions found broad based support for Obama’s plan on immigration reform. Over 80% of Latino voters said they supported Obama’s plan that included increased border security, fines for undocumented immigrants, and an eventual pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants meeting certain requirements – just 14% of Latinos opposed the president’s plan.
Statement on Methodology
Latino Decisions is a cooperative venture of Pacific Market Research and Dr. Gary M. Segura of Stanford University and Dr. Matt Barreto of the University of Washington. Questions can be directed to [email protected] or [email protected].
In November 2009 Latino Decisions fielded a national survey of Latino registered voters on issues related to health care reform. Latino Decisions partnered with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Center for Health Policy at the University of New Mexico, and impreMedia, and all phone calls were administered by Pacific Market Research in Renton, WA. The poll was overseen by Drs. Segura and Barreto, experts in Latino public opinion. A total of 1,000 Latino registered voters were interviewed, with a margin of error of +/‐ 3.1%. Latino registered voters were identified through a Spanish‐surname match against the statewide list of registered voters in 21 states. Latino Decisions selected the top 21 states with the highest number of Latino registered voters, and taken together, they account for over 90% of the Latino electorate. Telephone calls were conducted in English and Spanish, at the discretion of the respondent, and all respondent’s who were interviewed self‐identified as Latino or Hispanic and registered to vote. Overall, 54% of respondents were born in the United States, 39% were foreign born, and 6% born in Puerto Rico and 65% of interviews were completed in English and 35% in Spanish. The survey was approximately 22 minutes long, and was fielded from November 1 – 16, 2009. For more information, please visit www.latinodecisions.com or call 425-336-7000.
