The 2020 American Election Eve Poll includes over 15,000 voters nationally with oversamples of Latino/Latinx, African American, Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander American, and rural voters, along with other voters; as well as state-specific samples for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. According to results from The American Election Eve 2020 Survey, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won Latino voters in Pennsylvania by an estimated margin of 43 points. Biden received the support of 69 percent of the state’s Latinos, Republican incumbent Donald Trump captured 26 percent, with the remaining 5 percent supporting third-party candidates.
As indicated in the table below, Biden’s Latino support in Pennsylvania varied by gender, age and other demographic characteristics.
The pandemic mattered most
According to the Election Eve poll, the COVID pandemic had a significant impact on Latino voters. Nationally, 67 percent of Latinos surveyed agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response. Their attitudes are similar to those of Asian Americans (67 percent), but notably lower than among African Americans (84 percent). Only white voters surveyed were narrowly more likely to agree with the statement that “there was nothing Trump could have done differently” to limit the virus’ spread (54 percent) than whites who agreed that Trump “ignored” and “mismanaged” the virus (46 percent).
In addition, 57 percent of Latinos nationwide reported that either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point. This figure is similar to response rates for African Americans (54 percent) and Native Americans (59 percent), but slightly lower for Asian Americans (45 percent) and whites (49 percent). A combined 85 percent of Latinos said they either “strongly agreed” (67 percent) or “somewhat agreed” (31 percent) that the next Congress should pass a $2 trillion, comprehensive COVID stimulus bill.
Pennsylvania’s Latinos expressed similar opinions about the pandemic and the government’s response. Among Latinos in Pennsylvania surveyed in the poll, 51 percent rated it the most important issue to them this election; 65 percent agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response; 51 percent said either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point; and a combined 91 percent of Latinos said it was either “very important” (71 percent) or “somewhat important” (20 percent) that the next Congress should pass a comprehensive COVID stimulus bill with over 2 trillion dollars in additional funding for unemployment benefits, stimulus payments, small business loans, and support for state and local government.
With competition for Pennsylvania reaching a fever pitch, Latinos perceived an increase in racism over the years. When asked if they thought racism and discrimination against Latinos had increased, stayed about the same, or decreased, 60 percent said that they thought it had increased. As the Latino population grows in Pennsylvania, coalition building will be an important factor for the future of the state’s politicians. When asked if police need to be held accountable for their actions when they kill or abuse African American people and whether the state should get rid of laws that make it hard to prosecute police officers, so they face justice like everyone else, 90 percent of Latino voters were supportive.
“The Latino population in Pennsylvania grew by 39 percent, from 720,000 to over a million, since 2010,” said Latino Decisions co-founder Gary Segura. “The Keystone State, which pundits pegged as the most likely tipping point state in the 2020 presidential race, is now a Latino-influence state.”
The 12-state and National American Election Eve Poll 2020 was jointly sponsored and funded by a consortium of more than a dozen non-partisan, civic engagement groups, and conducted with confirmed voters, between October 24 and November 2. A total of 15,200 individuals were surveyed, including 5,300 Latino, 4,100 African American, 1,700 Asian American, 1,300 Native American, and 2,800 white voters. For full details and polling results in all states and nationwide, consult our website.
