By Priorities USA, Latino Victory Fund & Latino Decisions
Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to woo Latino voters to support his reelection in 2020. However, new polling indicates that the president’s incompetent response to the coronavirus crisis has significantly complicated his plans to make inroads with these voters — while also showing a path for Democrats to solidify their support.
The survey, conducted by Latino Decisions on behalf of Priorities USA and Latino Victory Fund, takes the temperature of Latino voters in two crucial swing states, Florida and Arizona. The results capture a snapshot of a voting bloc that has been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic and remains deeply skeptical of Trump’s handling of the virus, but that does not yet fully blame the president for the resulting economic fallout that continues to batter their pocketbooks.
Latinos have been hit particularly hard by coronavirus
As the pandemic continues to grip the nation, voters of all types, all across the country are looking for leadership on this issue. So it should come as no surprise that Latino voters in Florida and Arizona cited the coronavirus as the top issue they want the next president to address. (The second issue on the list from respondents in both states was health care access and affordability.)
Latinos have been hit harder than most by the ongoing crisis. From a health perspective, Latinos have contracted COVID-19 at a higher rate than members of other racial and ethnic groups. In Florida, for example, Latinos make up a quarter of the population, but account for 35% of the state’s confirmed cases.
And then there’s the economic impact of the pandemic, which has negatively impacted many Latino families’ financial situation. In our polling, roughly half of respondents reported that they or someone in their household had lost a job or taken a pay cut because of the coronavirus crisis, while a similar number had trouble affording essential expenses like housing, food and medicine. At the same time, a quarter said they had lost employer health benefits and one in five reported having to close a family business in the last month or so.
Latinos hold Trump responsible for his mishandling of the health crisis…
Even more so than other demographic groups, Latino voters hold Trump directly responsible for allowing the virus to spiral out of control and disapprove of his administration’s handling of the ensuing crisis.
More than two-thirds of poll respondents said they agreed that Trump “ignored early warning signs of coronavirus, and because of his delays and incompetent response, thousands of Americans are now sick and dying.” Perhaps unsurprisingly, Latinos also give the president low marks for his management of the crisis: his approval rating on the coronavirus is significantly underwater with these voters in both states, including a net disapproval of 24 points in Arizona (34%/58%) and 14 points in Florida (41%/55%).
And Latino voters see this as Trump’s mess to fix. When asked who is responsible for solving the problems created by the pandemic, 79% of Florida Latinos and 73% of Arizona Latinos point to the federal government — the top among a list of other potential actors, such as state and local government, private businesses and individuals, and doctors, medical experts and scientists. This suggests that Trump’s favored strategy of shifting blame to anyone and everyone else is a failing one.
…And Democrats have an opportunity to tie Trump’s mishandling of the health crisis to the resulting economic crisis
Trump is not a popular figure among Latino voters. In addition to his poor marks on managing the coronavirus, just 32% of Arizona Latinos and 42% of Florida Latinos approve of how he is handling his job as president, with only 26% and 38% of respondents in each state viewing him favorably, respectively.
But Trump continues to outperform his overall unpopularity on at least one issue: the economy. In one of the few instances where his numbers are above water, 50% of Florida Latinos approve of the president’s handling of the economy, compared to 44% who disapprove. Trump doesn’t fare quite as well in Arizona, where only 38% approve of his performance on this issue — but even these meager numbers outpace the dismal ratings for his overall job performance and handling of other issues, such as coronavirus response and health care.
While these numbers may not constitute a legitimate strength for Trump, they do represent one of his few remaining lifelines with Latinos, as it appears some voters do not yet fully hold him accountable for the negative economic effects caused by his incompetent response to the pandemic. At a time when so many Latino families are experiencing outsized financial hardship, it is important for Democrats to continue to draw a direct line between Trump’s failure to contain the health crisis and the ensuing economic fallout that is currently wreaking havoc on their personal finances.
That includes framing the choice on the economy for voters in personal terms. In the survey, when Latino voters were asked which candidate would be better at “helping workers and small businesses that are hurting because of the coronavirus outbreak,” Joe Biden holds a substantial lead over Trump — 13 points in Florida and 26 in Arizona.
By connecting the health crisis that Latino voters already hold Trump responsible for directly to the personal financial difficulties facing their families, Democrats can successfully erode Trump’s remaining strength on the economy.
Latinos believe Biden has the temperament and traits to lead us out of this crisis
Like most Americans, Latinos are looking for a leader who can guide the country out of the current crisis — and Joe Biden appears to possess the traits and temperament they seek.
When survey respondents are presented with a list of qualities people may look for in a president and asked which candidate would be better on each, Biden outpaces Trump by large, double-digit margins on several key, coronavirus-related indicators — such as having the right temperament for the job, providing the kind of leadership the country needs, and protecting the public’s health in an emergency.
And yet, while many Latinos already have warm feelings toward Biden, there is still ample room to grow and solidify his support as the campaign continues. While 55% of Arizona Latinos and 54% Florida Latinos view Biden favorably overall, roughly one in five are either neutral toward the former vice president or haven’t heard enough about him yet to form an opinion.
As Biden has more time to continue to introduce himself to this diverse community, Latino voters will have more opportunities to familiarize themselves with his personal story and vision for the country — deepening his already strong support among this crucial group of voters who could prove decisive in November.
