New Poll Shows 2016 Latino Votes Will Follow Candidates who Want to Continue and Extend President Obama’s Executive Action on Immigration
During the November 2014 midterms Latino voters said the number one issue they wanted Congress and the President to address was immigration reform. Today, new national poll findings of Latino voters reveal that the 2016 presidential election will also hinge on immigration. The 2016 Latino vote could face huge swings, depending on whether candidates will renew or let expire President Obama’s executive action on deportation relief. Specifically– the poll shows a nearly 50% swing in Latino voter support for Hillary Clinton, depending on whether or not she pledges to continue the executive action started under President Obama. Clinton said she supported President Obama’s executive action on immigration, but has not said if she believes the next president should renew it, or let it expire. Obama’s executive action is temporary and the next President could renew or eliminate the it in 2017, unless Congress passes permanent reform.
See full poll results here: latinovote2016poll
The national poll of Latino registered voters was conducted November 20-22, following with the news of President Obama’s policy announcement, and was conducted by Latino Decisions and commissioned by Presente.org in partnership with NALACC and Mi Familia Vota. On November 24, Latino Decisions released the first poll of Latino opinions on the executive action and found an overwhelming 89% of Latino voters supported President Obama’s actions on immigration.
Poll headlines
- When told that Clinton would renew the executive action in 2017 if elected President, 85% of Latinos say they would support her compared to 11% who would not. This includes 73% of Latino Independents and 56% of Latino Republicans who would support Mrs. Clinton
- However, when told that Clinton might let the executive action expire and not renew it if elected, only 37% of Latinos say they would support her while 55% would not. This includes 53% of Latino Democrats who said they would be unlikely to support Mrs. Clinton if she did not commit to renewing the executive action.
- In addition, Latino voters demonstrated strong support for even further presidential action on immigration if Congress fails to pass permanent reforms. When asked if the President should use additional executive actions to protect additional undocumented immigrants who do not have U.S. citizen children and were not offered relief under the November 20th announcement, fully 73% of Latinos said yes.
Forecasting how the executive action will play out in 2016 is actually pretty easy, given a very similar story unfolded in 2012. In June 2012 President Obama enacted the DACA executive action to provide relief from deportation and temporary work permits for DREAMers. His Republican challenger Mitt Romney opposed the DACA program and eventually said he would not renew the program if elected President. On election day 2012 58% of Latino voters said they were more enthusiastic about Obama because he enacted DACA. In contrast, 57% said they were less enthusiastic about Romney because of his opposition to the executive order. Further, 74% of Latinos said they felt the Romney campaign either “didn’t care about Latinos” or was “hostile towards Latinos” according to election eve polling.
Statement by Arturo Carmona, Executive Director of Presente.org:
“Hillary Clinton and other Presidential candidates for 2016 can either support stopping deportations through executive action or they can lose the Latino vote. Should Congress fail to resolve the deportation crisis, 73% of Latinos favor additional executive orders to finish the job for the additional 7 million immigrants that were left out: and they will base their votes on which candidates will finish the job.”
Statement by Oscar Chacon, Executive Director of NALACC:
“This survey makes it abundantly clear that Latino voters will support presidential candidates committed to keeping President Obama’s executive actions on immigration policy in place. This poll also evidences the importance of immigration policy and immigrant rights to Latino voters in the context of the 2016 Presidential election. If Republican or Democratic presidential candidates hope to attract Latino voters to their respective camps in 2016, they will need to come up with just solutions to our broken, obsolete and inhumane immigration policy.”
Statement by Ben Monterroso, Executive Director of Mi Familia Vota:
“The poll results give very clear direction to any presidential candidate in 2016. It does not matter what party you belong to, or even how friendly you have been with the Latino community in past years. It’s not even enough to say that you support the president’s use of executive authority. If you want the Latino vote in 2016 — and you should, if you want to win the White House — you have to commit to continuing the president’s temporary program until Congress passes a long-term solution that is acceptable to Latino voters.”
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