The importance of the Native American vote in 2020 was most apparent in Arizona, a state that had not gone to the Democrats since 1996. A key swing state in 2020 where the Native American electorate is large enough to have been consequential to the state’s outcome. Native Americans comprise 6% of Arizona’s electorate, larger than the margin of victory for Biden in a tight race.
The Latino Decisions American Election Eve Survey includes a national sample (n=1,300) of Native American voters with an oversample of 400 in Arizona. The survey allows us to not only discuss the voting behavior of Native Americans in these key battleground date, but compare the results for Native Americans to those of other major racial and ethnic groups.
Seventy-two percent of Native American voters reported voting for Joe Biden which is lower than the Democratic vote share of other racial and ethnic minorities, but significantly higher than White voters in the state. We can therefore conclude that Native Americans were part of the coalition of voters who helped Joe Biden win the state of Arizona.
The large national sample of the Native American electorate allows us to highlight variation in voting behavior within the diverse Native American community in Arizona.
- Native Americans in Arizona voting behavior varied significantly based on where they live in the state, with support for Biden being highest among Native American voters who live in rural areas of the state (76%), followed by those who live in urban areas (68%), and voters who live in suburban areas (59%).
- Cross-over voting among Native American voters benefited Democratic candidates, as 91% of Native American Democrats reported that they voted for a Democratic candidate compared to 88% of self-rated Native American Republicans who reported voting for a Republican candidate.
- Native American Independents broke toward the Democrats, with 71% of Independent/other party identifiers reported voting for a Democratic candidate, compared to only 9% for President Trump and 20% for another party’s candidate.
- Native American voters of ages 18 to 39 were the most supportive of the Biden-Harris ticket across age groups of indigenous voters, with 78% of Native American voters under age 40 voting Democratic in 2020.
Native American voters also helped contribute to the victory of Mark Kelly, the Democratic challenger who will take the seat once held by the late John McCain. Kelly garnered 72% of the Native American vote in Arizona. There was also very little roll-off among Native American voters in Arizona, as only 3% of Native Americans in the state reported voting for President and skipping the senate race.
The severe inequalities facing Native Americans in outcomes associated with the pandemic led to COVID-19 relief being the most important issue for Native voters in Arizona at 45%. An astonishing 69% of Native Americans in Arizona reported that they know someone personally who has tested positive for the Coronavirus, a higher percentage than any other racial group in the state. The disproportionate impact of the pandemic on Native Americans proved to be consequential to the election outcome.
Our survey identifies that 74% of Native American voters in Arizona agreed with the statement that “President Trump ignored the early warning signs of coronavirus and because of his mismanagement, millions of Americans became sick and more than 220,000 died.” The President’s poor performance addressing the outbreak and the major challenges tribes in Arizona have faced as a result of his performance was a major factor that led to his inability to win the highly prized state of Arizona.
The 12-state and National American Election Eve Poll 2020 was jointly sponsored and funded by a consortium of more than a dozen non-partisan, civic engagement groups, and conducted with confirmed voters, between October 24 and November 2. A total of 15,200 individuals were surveyed, including 5,300 Latino, 4,100 African American, 1,700 Asian American, 1,300 Native American, and 2,800 white voters. For full details and polling results in all states and nationwide, consult our website.
About the Author Team
Raymond Foxworth (Navajo Nation) is vice-president of First Nations Development Institute (First Nations), a Native-led 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, working to strengthen American Indian economies through investing in and creating innovative institutions and models that strengthen asset control and support economic development for American Indian people and their communities. For more information, visit www.firstnations.org.
Gabriel R. Sanchez is a Professor of Political Science and Founding Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Chair in Health Policy at the University of New Mexico, Director of the UNM Center for Social Policy, co-founder of the UNM Native American Budget and Policy Institute, and a principal at Latino Decisions. Sanchez co-wrote an expert witness report for both North Dakota Photo ID cases focused on the impact on Native American eligible voters, and worked with the Native American Rights Fund to support Native American voters in Nevada gain access to mail-based voting in this election cycle.
