Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is quickly becoming a political liability for Republicans after Dr. Blasey Ford and other women have come forward with allegations of sexual assault. In light of these revelations, a chorus of prominent voices are demanding that the confirmation process be put on hold. Amnesty International USA issued a letter to senators on September 24th listing its concerns about Kavanaugh’s human rights record, including the recent allegations. The letter states, “As sexual assault also implicates a number of human rights, including the right to be free from gender-based discrimination and violence, we also call for a thorough vetting in regard to any allegations made against Kavanaugh to this effect, including those by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez.”
Though Republicans sought to avoid a contentious confirmation process, the unexpected sexual assault charges may jettison the nominee. For the past three weeks, our 2018 tracking poll of Latino voters has asked respondents to give us their perspective on Brett Kavanaugh.[1] When respondents were initially asked about Brett Kavanaugh, a significant number of Latinos were in the dark about the nominee, with 41% of respondents either having no opinion or not knowing who he was. This week (week 4 of the tracking poll), that figure has dropped to 28%. Clearly, a majority of Latino voters are following Kavanaugh’s growing complications. In this week’s poll, we asked Latinos whether Brett Kavanaugh should withdraw from the nomination or continue forward in light of the credible allegations made by Dr. Blasey Ford.
The results in Figure 1 show that Latinos overwhelmingly feel that Brett Kavanaugh should withdraw as a nominee for the Supreme Court as nearly three-quarters of Latino voters believe that the sexual assault charges disqualify him from sitting on The Bench. In a follow-up question, Latinos were asked, “If Kavanaugh withdraws should President Trump immediately nominate another candidate, or should he hold off that nomination until after the new Congress and Senate are sworn in?”
A majority (64%) said that President Trump should wait until after the congressional mid-term elections to nominate a new candidate. With the Congressional midterm elections fast approaching, Republicans were pinning their hopes on Kavanaugh’s successful confirmation. Today, Brett Kavanaugh is becoming a political liability. As of this week our Latino Decisions/NALEO poll finds that 70% of Latinos rated Donald Trump unfavorably, while 60% rated Republicans in Congress unfavorably. A whopping 79% characterized Republican Party outreach efforts toward Latinos as either being hostile or uncaring. These dismal ratings, along with the fact that enthusiasm for voting is on the rise among Latinos (Figure 3), should worry Republicans.
The 2016 Election was a stinging defeat for Latinos as their candidate of choice, Hillary Clinton, lost to Donald Trump. While over three-quarters of Latinos voted for Hillary Clinton, their electoral strength was insufficient to overcome the so-called “whitelash.” Latinos continued to feel the sting as Trump directed the immigration enforcement agencies to ramp up deportations and pursue other draconian measures against unauthorized immigration. In a few weeks, Latino voters will have an opportunity to respond to President Trump and Republicans in Congress. The data from our tracking poll show widespread dissatisfaction toward Donald Trump and Republicans broadly. The nomination of Brett Kavanaugh appears to be adding fuel to the Latino fire of discontent. But discontent and anger only go so far in getting voters to the polls. Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) mobilization efforts provide a surefire way to boost Latino voting, but this will require that Democrats and their candidates seize this opportunity now and not squander it with eleventh-hour-half-hearted-measures that have characterized past elections.
Methodology. On behalf of NALEO Educational Fund, Latino Decisions interviewed 500 Latino registered voters nationwide from August 28 – September 3, 2018. Each week thereafter a fresh sample of 250 registered voters is added and combined with the previous week’s N=250 interviews to create a rolling average for each week, consistent with most tracking polls methodology. Respondents were randomly selected from Latino Decisions partner web panels and confirmed to be registered to vote. The survey was self-administered and available in English or Spanish at the discretion of the respondent. Data were compared to the best-known estimates of the U.S. Census Current Population Survey (CPS) for demographic profile of Latino registered voters and weights were applied to bring the data into direct balance with Census estimates. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Adrian D. Pantoja, Ph.D., is Senior Analyst at Latino Decisions and Professor of Politics at Pitzer College.
