Latinos are politically energized in 2020 and their votes can propel a candidate into the winner’s circle. The stakes could not be higher for the Democratic presidential hopefuls as they head into the Nevada caucuses. The hyper-diversity of the Democratic Party’s electorate makes Nevada a litmus test for how candidates will fare in other diverse states. Latinos, one of the largest and fastest growing segments of the electorate will be pivotal in shaping the Nevada election and those of other states. In an effort to understand the voting propensities and attitudes of Latinos in 2020, Univision Noticias and Latino Decisions recently carried out a national poll of 1,000 Latino registered voters, with an oversample of 306 from Nevada. This analysis focuses on Latino voters in Nevada.
Given the cumbersome nature of caucuses, a critical question on the minds of many is: will Latinos turnout and participate in the Nevada caucuses? Survey respondents were asked to state the likelihood of voting in the primaries or caucuses this election cycle.
In Nevada, over three-quarters (77%) of Latino voters say they are “almost certain” to participate. A mere 13 percent say they are on the fence or will not vote this February. In a separate question, 63 percent of respondents said that the 2020 election was more important to them than the 2016 election. Clearly, there is a strong desire on the part of Latinos in the state to be politically engaged and to help nominate the Democratic contender. Are they unified behind a particular candidate, or will their political power be diluted in a contest of very strong personalities?
Previously, we noted that Bernie Sanders was a favorite among Latinos in California. How is Bernie faring in Nevada? The survey includes a number of questions gaging Latino evaluations of the remaining presidential hopefuls. One question asks, who among the presidential candidates are they planning to vote for in the primary?
Similar to the California results, the data show that Latinos in Nevada are feeling the Bern. One-third are currently planning to vote for Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden ranks second with a support rate of 22 percent, while most of the remaining candidates have single-digit levels of support. In separate questions, Latinos were presented with hypothetical races between Donald Trump and varying Democratic candidates. Bernie Sanders receives the strongest share of the Latino vote relative to Trump; 80 percent say they would vote for Sanders, while a mere 16 percent would vote for Trump. Joe Biden also wins a significant share of Latino voters: 72 percent (Biden) to 19 percent (Trump). While Latinos in Nevada broadly back Sanders, Biden is popular among older Latinos, suggesting that he could win the state if his base turns out in significant numbers. The opportunity to chip away at Bernie’s lead is possible. Over one-third (34%) of Latinos in Nevada perceive the Democratic candidates as not caring enough about Latino voters, creating an opening for any presidential hopeful to mobilize Latinos and increase their chances of winning the state.
As the presidential primaries move into more diverse states, Latino voters will play a decisive role in shaping the outcomes of those races. In 2016, Latinos became Clinton’s firewall, and their support for her ultimately led her to victory in the primary contest. Nevada could be the beginning of such a run for one of the Democratic candidates. Latinos appear to be betting on Bernie, yet Biden could close the gap by intensifying his outreach and mobilization efforts. One thing is certain, those who see Latinos as an afterthought will soon be folding their campaigns.
Adrian D. Pantoja, Ph.D., is professor of Politics at Pitzer College and Senior Analyst with Latino Decisions.
