A poll conducted by Latino Decisions for Univision News and ABC News and released January 25, 2012 accurately predicted Mitt Romney would hold more than a 20-point lead among Latino Republicans in Florida, and exit polls released January 31, 2012 confirmed Romney bested Gingrich by more than 20 points. Two other polls released on Monday January 30 by PPP and Insider Advantage both suggested that Gingrich actually led among Hispanics.
As Matthew Jaffe and Jordan Fabian wrote for ABC News on January 25, the Latino Decision poll showed Romney with a 26-point lead over Gingrich. And, taking a look at the exit poll results posted January 31, Romney held a 25-point advantage over Gingrich on election day, 54 to 29.
The Latino Decisions/Univision/ABC poll interviewed 517 Latino registered voters in Florida via landline and cellphone, and reached respondents in both English and Spanish, at the discretion of the person interviewed. The sample design started from the point of view of gathering an accurate and representative sample of Latinos statewide, as opposed to a small sample of Latinos gathered as part of a larger statewide poll.
In 2010, Latino Decisions partnered with the Los Angeles Times to conduct a pre-election, and post-election survey in California, focusing specifically on the Latino oversample. Following the election, USC Professor of Political Science Jane Junn noted the L.A. Times poll was the most accurate in California because it took the time to accurately, and bilingually interview Latino voters. In states with a large Latino population – such as Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and other states likely to be very competitive in 2012 – Nate Silver points out (see item #4 here) that pollsters must take extra care to accurately collect data among Latinos – the fastest growing segment of the electorate in just about every state.
