With the closure of Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Kansas, we can assess Latino impact in two really competitive environments. Full results are posted here: 2014 Election Eve Poll
We find in Colorado that Mark Udall is pulling 71% of the Latino vote to a mere 23 for Cory Gardner. We project this is a margin of 6.2% for Udall in his ultimate total. Should Udall win, the role of Latinos will be decisive. Should he lose, we’d have to look at his performance relative to Senator Bennett, who did far better in 2010, and President Obama just two years ago, who got 81% and 87% of the Latino vote, respectively, in the 2010 and 2012 Latino Decisions Election Eve Polls. In the gubernatorial contest, incumbent Gov. Hickenlooper received 70% to Beauprez’s 28. Hickenlooper is underperforming his own 2010 vote share in this contest.
In Kansas, there has been a 575% growth of Latino registered voters between 2000 and 2012. The population, while still small, is exploding. Democratic challenger Paul Davis is getting 66% of the Latino vote, compared to just 31% for Incumbent Sam Brownback. In the Senate contest between incumbent Pat Roberts and independent challenger Greg Orman, Orman is polling 64% of Latino voters to 36% for Senator Roberts, strong but behind Davis’ performance. This may be an indication that the absence of a partisan label on a candidate with low familiarity among Latinos cost him modestly.
Texas remains a place of bitter disappointment for the Democratic share of the Latino vote. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis appears to be winning more than two-thirds–68%–of the Latino vote, but this is about 12% less than the last Democratic nominee. Texas Latinos are still in deep need of meaningful investment in outreach and mobilization by both parties.
In Arizona, Democrat Fred DuVal receiving 74% to Ducey’s 24%, a three-to-one margin that clearly reflects the recent racial polarization under Governor Jan Brewer and her allies. However a bright spot in Arizona could be candidate for State Superintendent David Garcia who is pulling in 81% of the Latino vote
