David Ayón’s most recent post at Univision news focuses on Latino public opinion on U.S. policy towards Cuba.
While the timing of Obama’s announcement that full diplomatic relations would be restored with Cuba came as a surprise, the substance of his decision grows out of positions the President has taken since his 2008 campaign. Much like in the case of executive action on immigration, Obama made promises to Latino voters to reform existing policies and found the Congress unwilling to act. On both matters, he chose to take action following the midterm elections of his second term. These two policy changes correspond to both emerging domestic political realities, and U.S. diplomacy in Latin America.
Back in 2009, Latino Decisions conducted a poll after President Obama’s first 100 days in office. The survey found high levels of support for the first steps Obama took to ease restrictions on family travel and remittances to Cuba. More recently, a survey conducted on the eve of the 2014 midterm elections, commissioned by CubaNow, revealed substantially more support within the Florida Latino electorate for changing U.S. policy toward Cuba than for continuing the trade embargo on the island.
De las dos magnas decisiones ejecutivas anunciadas por Obama a fines del 2014 — en materia migratoria y respecto a Cuba — la primera fue súper-anticipada, mas la segunda sorprendió todo mundo. Pero si bien fue impredecible el momento escogido por el presidente para transformar relaciones con el régimen castrista, en sustancia este paso histórico no fue inesperado.
De hecho, es probable que a la larga ambas decisiones serán vistas como significativamente relacionadas, prometidas a votantes latinos desde la campaña presidencial de 2008, pospuestas hasta pasadas las elecciones intermedias, pero prácticamente inevitables tanto en función a cambios políticos en EEUU como en sus relaciones con Latinoamérica.
Click here to read full post at UnivisionNoticias.
Click here to access all of David Ayón’s posts at Univision.com.
David R. Ayón is Senior Strategist and Advisor at Latino Decisions. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation.
