Julian Castro and Kamala Harris impressed Latinos most during the first 2020 Democratic presidential debates in late June, according to Univision’s post-debate survey. Harris and Castro jumped to the top of the rankings and join Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the four Democratic candidates viewed most favorably by Latinos. Joe Biden trails slightly, finishing fifth overall.
The poll for Univision News of 411 eligible Latino voters, conducted by Latino Decisions and North Star Opinion, June 28 through June 30, reveals mixed Latinos attitudes toward the record-setting field of Democratic contenders.
California Sen. Harris and former Obama cabinet officer and San Antonio mayor Castro received the highest marks from Latino viewers for their performances during the MSNBC-Telemundo sponsored debates. Thirty-percent said Harris did best during the debates, with another 28 percent citing Castro. Double-digit shares of Latinos also rated Vermont Sen. Sanders (18 percent), Massachusetts Sen. Warren (17 percent), former Vice President Biden (16 percent) and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (10 percent) as performing best in the debates. (Respondents were allowed to cite more than candidate, given the two day debate, so totals sum to more than 100 percent.)
Most favorable candidates
Although Castro, Harris, Sanders, Warren and Biden enjoy wide name recognition, none has yet emerged as a clear favorite among Latino voters. As the table below shows, the first four Democratic aspirants drew the highest net favorability ratings from Latino voters who watched the debates. All four have net favorables in the low-30s, with Biden’s net favorable at 23 percent.
Overall, 68 percent of Latinos who watched the debate said they intend to vote for the Democrats’ 2020 presidential nominee, while 18 percent intend to vote for Republican incumbent Donald Trump. The rest remain undecided.
As for key issues, a plurality of Latinos identified Sanders as the best candidate to lower health care costs (23 percent) and college costs/student debt (29 percent). They pegged Harris as best on gun safety (19 percent), and by a substantial margin identified Castro as the best Democrat to handle immigration reform. At 31 percent, Castro bested Biden (12 percent) by 19 points on the issue; the former vice president led on none of the four issues polled.
Key debate moments
What moments during the debates resonated with Latinos?
Asked if the pledge by Democratic candidates to cover health care for undocumented immigrants affected their 2020 electoral calculus, 56 percent of respondents said that pledge makes them more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee, 19 percent said it makes them less likely, a +37 point advantage for Democrats (with 25 percent saying it makes no difference).
To Castro’s assertion that undocumented immigration should be considered a civil offense and not a crime, 62 percent of Latinos who watched the debates said it makes them more likely to vote for the 2020 Democratic candidate, 15 percent less likely, a +47 point advantage (with 23 percent no difference)
Finally, the Univision poll asked Latinos their reactions to Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign launch in Orlando, Florida just a few weeks ago. In that speech Trump lashed out against Central American migrants seeking asylum, championed his border wall, and said Democrats wanted to “flood the country with illegal immigrants.” When asked about these statements, two-thirds of potential Latino voters said hearing Trump’s statements made them more likely to vote against Trump in 2020, suggesting his campaign speeches may end up further alienating Latino voters.
