In a recent interview with Democratic strategist David Axelrod, former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, foresees a coming Latino backlash against the Republican Party as a result of Donald Trump’s candidacy and his controversial statements about immigrants and Latinos. Statements like, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best…They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists…” or that the U.S. is a “dumping ground for the rest of the world” will not soon be forgotten by Latino voters. Romney has first-hand experience on the failed strategy of running on an anti-immigration platform. But, all is not lost according to Romney. The Republican Party may find a way out of this political quagmire.
According to Romney, Republicans may be able to fix the damage caused by Trump if Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush wins the nomination. He notes, “Now if our nominee happened to be somebody like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush who have strong Hispanic roots themselves and connections themselves that might not be as big an issue. But if it were maybe somebody else that didn’t have those connections, why it could probably remain as a shadow over their campaign” .
The key issue is whether having strong Hispanic roots and connections is sufficient to repair and reverse the trend of Latino defection from the Republican Party. Of the two individuals mentioned, Rubio, has the strongest connections with Latinos as a co-ethnic candidate. While there is some evidence that Latinos respond positively to co-ethnic messengers, even if the messenger is Republican (Barreto and Nuno 2011), there is no evidence that Latino candidate choice is significantly influenced by the ethnicity of the candidate. In a previous post here, Barreto and Segura observed that “Latino voters have proven more than willing to reject even actual Latinos as candidates when their policy positions are in contrast to the community preferences” . Indeed, if ethnicity trumped policy positions, Senator Ted Cruz would have won a significant share of the Latino vote in his 2012 Senatorial run in Texas. Polling from Latino Decisions showed that Latinos overwhelming voted for the White Democrat, Paul Sadler . The fact that Cruz did so poorly among Latinos may be one of the reasons Romney did not include him among the possible Republicans who could bridge the Latino-GOP divide. In short, it is unlikely that Rubio’s shared ethnicity with Latino voters will salvage the Republican Party in 2016.
If Rubio’s shared ethnicity cannot bridge the rift between Latinos and the Republican Party, could the divide be narrowed by avoiding the anti-immigrant rhetoric of Trump or by adopting policy positions aligned with Latino voters? The answer is yes. For many years Latino Decision’s polls have shown that immigration is one of the top policy issues for Latinos. Our surveys and studies regularly demonstrate that Latino voters mobilize against candidates who run anti-immigrant campaigns. In fact, the reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters can be directly attributed to the anti-immigrant campaigns of some high-profile candidates, including Mitt Romney. Ultimately Latino voters will be won over by the policies the candidates advocate. Where does Rubio stand on issues that are important to Latino voters?
The most significant issue for Latinos is immigration. Our surveys consistently show that over three-quarters of Latinos favor a path toward citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Latino voters across party affiliation overwhelming support President Obama’s executive action on immigration with 95% of Democrats, 81% of Independents, and 76% of Latino Republicans saying they support his decision to provide relief from deportation to undocumented parents of U.S. citizen and legal resident children. Rubio may be able to win over some Latinos based on his position on other issues. However, immigration is the primary issue used by some Republican candidates to mobilize conservative Whites and anti-immigration positions are responsible for driving the wedge between Latinos and the GOP. If Rubio is to bridge the gap with Latino voters, then it has to be accomplished by appealing to this electorate via his position on immigration.
Is Rubio’s position on immigration aligned with those of Latinos? First, a search through his campaign website fails to mention anything related to immigration. In fairness, immigration reform is not a central feature of Rubio’s primary campaign. Nonetheless, Rubio does have a position on immigration. His Senate page includes a copy of S. 744, his immigration plan in addition to a video outlining the core principles of his bill. Rubio states in his video that, “Before they [undocumented immigrants] can even apply to be permanent residents, they should have to wait at least 10 years. They will have to get in line behind those who are trying to come the right way. And they will have to wait until we have a system in place to prevent illegal immigrants from being hired. They will have to wait until we have a system in place to track people who overstay their visas. And they will have to wait until we’ve implemented plans to spend at least 5.5 billion dollars to secure the border through more border patrol officers, more technology, and yes more fencing.” In short, Rubio is supportive of a path toward citizenship, but only after our borders are secured.
Unfortunately, this is a position that is not widely shared by Latino voters. In a 2013 Latino Decisions national survey of Latinos, we posed two policy scenarios regarding comprehensive immigration reform. The first scenario includes a path toward citizenship while increasing border security and enforcing existing immigration laws. The second scenario also includes a path toward citizenship but only after the border has been secured. The latter option is one that is advocated by Rubio and other Republicans. The results of our poll show that 81 percent of Latinos support a path toward citizenship along with increases in border security. Only 13 percent of respondents were supportive of Rubio’s position.
Immigration reform is not the only issue that matters to Latino voters, but it is the issue that is being used by Donald Trump to win over conservative White voters while driving a significant wedge between Latinos and the GOP. By no means is Trump this first to employ this shortsighted strategy, but he may well be the last to do so. Republicans used immigration to drive the wedge and they must now use it to fix the divide. There simply are no other options. At the present moment, Marco Rubio is the best chance Republicans have toward bridging the Latino-GOP divide. Avoiding an anti-immigrant campaign and ethnic appeals can go a long way toward repairing the damage caused by Trump’s campaign. Ultimately, however, Rubio will have to change his position on immigration and align it with Latino voters if he is to win the hearts and minds of Latinos in 2016.
Adrian Pantoja is a senior analyst at Latino Decisions and Professor of Politics at Pitzer College.
