The 2020 American Election Eve Poll includes over 15,000 voters nationally with oversamples of Latino/Latinx, African American, Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander American, and rural voters, along with other voters; as well as state-specific samples for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. According to results from The American Election Eve 2020 Survey, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won Latino voters in Arizona by an estimated margin of 45 points. Biden received the support of 71 percent of the state’s Latinos, Republican incumbent Donald Trump captured 66 percent, with the remaining 3 percent supporting third-party candidates.
As indicated in the table below, Biden’s Latino support in Arizona varied by gender, age and other demographic characteristics.
The pandemic mattered most
According to the Election Eve poll, the COVID pandemic had a significant impact on Latino voters. Nationally, 67 percent of Latinos surveyed agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response. Their attitudes are similar to those of Asian Americans (67 percent), but notably lower than among African Americans (84 percent). Only white voters surveyed were narrowly more likely to agree with the statement that “there was nothing Trump could have done differently” to limit the virus’ spread (54 percent) than whites who agreed that Trump “ignored” and “mismanaged” the virus (46 percent).
In addition, 57 percent of Latinos nationwide reported that either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point. This figure is similar to response rates for African Americans (54 percent) and Native Americans (59 percent), but slightly lower for Asian Americans (45 percent) and whites (49 percent). A combined 85 percent of Latinos said they either “strongly agreed” (67 percent) or “somewhat agreed” (31 percent) that the next Congress should pass a $2 trillion, comprehensive COVID stimulus bill.
Arizona’s Latinos expressed similar opinions about the pandemic and the government’s response. Among Latinos in Arizona surveyed in the poll, 59 percent rated it the most important issue to them this election; 66 percent agreed with the statement that Trump “ignored the early warning signs” on the virus and “mismanaged” the government’s response; 64 percent said either they, a member of their household, a member of their family, or somebody else they know had contracted the virus at some point; and a combined 93 percent of Latinos said it was either “very important” (71 percent) or “somewhat important” (22 percent) that the next Congress should pass a comprehensive COVID stimulus bill with over 2 trillion dollars in additional funding for unemployment benefits, stimulus payments, small business loans, and support for state and local government.
Latinos in Arizona are no stranger to Trumpism. After decades of vilification by Republican policies that targeted their communities by notorious criminals like Sheriff Joe Arpaio and xenophobes like former Senator Russell Pearce, the anti-Latino SB1070 legislation will be a stain on Arizona’s history much like Proposition 187 was a watershed moment for California Republicans. Despite the sordid history, 65 percent of Latino voters said racism and discrimination against Latinos had increased over the last four years in the Grand Canyon state. With Arizona now a solid purple, the question remains whether Republicans will go down the path of California Republicans by doubling down on their extreme message. With Maricopa County as one of the fastest growing and innovative geographic regions in the country, Governor Ducey will need to reflect on what it means for Republican values when Latinos, and the state in general, have turned Arizona purple under his leadership.
“In the past decade, Arizona surpassed Illinois as the state with the fourth-largest Latino population in America,” said Latino Decisions co-founder Gary Segura. “Thanks to Maricopa County and other fast-growing Latino counties, Arizona may join the rest of the Southwest as a reliably blue state based on the strength of Democratic-leaning Latino voters.”
The 12-state and National American Election Eve Poll 2020 was jointly sponsored and funded by a consortium of more than a dozen non-partisan, civic engagement groups, and conducted with confirmed voters, between October 24 and November 2. A total of 15,200 individuals were surveyed, including 5,300 Latino, 4,100 African American, 1,700 Asian American, 1,300 Native American, and 2,800 white voters. For full details and polling results in all states and nationwide, consult our website.
